MGoBlog is trying to understand why Big 10 schools have become less competitive with the SEC and Big 12. An argument can be made that no shift in football power has occurred – just a change in perception of the SEC but that is for another time. In his first attempt to rationalize the north/South shift the author suggests simple growth in population in the South as the answer.
While it isn’t quite a mainstream media opinion yet, many of us are believers that population density plays a major factor in relative college football team strength. In other words, the more people near a given school, the better the school’s football team should be—in the aggregate.
Of course, the most obvious test for this hypothesis is metropolitan New York City, the most densely populated area of the country. Theory fail.
Next he tries to explain why the population shift to the South occurred. He suggests the development of air conditioning made life bearable in our hellish climes.
The theory is that prior to the 1950s, Southern summers were simply not bearable to most Americans, so more chose to live in North and East than do currently1. As access to air conditioning increased, population density in the Midwest and Northeast rose, and advanced communications (reliable telephone, teletype, and fax machines here folks) connected the country; people were able to gradually move to the relatively cheaper South and West without losing connection to business centers while remaining comfortable in the summer months.
The article cited by the author does not mention the “theory” quoted above. The only reference to the South is:
Today, air conditioners have been said to be a partial cause for the changes in the South, and for most of us who have experienced its cooling benefits in times of searing heat waves, it is an invention that is hard to live without.
There has been a population shift from north to South in the U.S. Take a look around in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those rusting hulks of former factories did not close because the workers left for the air-conditioned South. The workers moved on in search of jobs when the mills closed. The prosperous mill towns of the Midwest have, to a great extent, shrunk to a fraction of their former robust character. The middle and professional classes have migrated to Atlanta, Charlotte, Augusta and Macon as there opportunities shrank. Left are the old and those less able or less willing to pursue lives elsewhere – those communities are less prosperous. Those towns (and the schools supported by the taxes paid by the mills) were the wellspring of talent for the Big 10 and to a lesser extent some SEC schools into the early 1960′s. UGA’s Heisman Trophy winner Frank Sinkwich (1942) was from McKees Rock, PA and Charley Trippi was from Pittston, PA. There are many other examples.
My point is that neither air conditioning nor increased population is responsible for the upsurge of the SEC football. Increased affluence among the working classes in the South is a better explanation. The article correctly point to the percent of African-Americans in the South but fails to notice their astonishing increase in income since the 1950′s. Instead, he stumbles into blatantly racist drivel about genetic predisposition.
If blacks are genetically pre-disposed to be better football players (which the racial composition of college football suggests) then the large percentage of blacks may give Southern schools a demographic advantage not indicated by their population. NOTE: This is simply conjecture based on data available—I do not purport to make definitive claims about the genetic pre-dispositions of any race.
Are Dominicans genetically predisposed to be baseball players? How about Russians for hockey? Is genetics responsible for all those quarterbacks from the Pittsburgh area? Come on – it’s the 21st century.
The reasoning of the piece flawed at best, however, the conclusion is spot-on. Michigan football will find glory in the past rather than the future.
…the Bulldogs always beat Big 10 teams. We haven’t lost to a team that was a Big 10 member at the time of the game since the 1950s. Since then we’ve beaten Michigan (1965), Michigan State (1988), Ohio State (1992), Purdue (1999 and 2003), and Wisconsin (1997 and 2004).
